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Swiss League Cup Final: Weather is very difficult, descision Fryday

Martin Scheel 20. September 2012 Swiss League Cup Final
Unfortunately the weather is difficult again.

In short:
The models are changing every 12 hours :-(
At the North side of the Alps I do not see a real chance for a task :-(

The only real flyable possibility is the Tessin, probably Mt. Lema.

But: There is a inversion (1200-2000m) . Below the inversion a dirty airmass is pushing from Milano towards North. Above 2000m the air is dry, at 3000m is a lot of Westwind (Saturday 30kn, Sunday 15kn).
Saturday there could be high clouds, saturday night to sunday morning a cloud layer at 2000m. This layer will disappear with the sun.
The calculated thermal-top would be around 2000m, so the wind should be ok. But I have doubts, that there is enough thermal activity to make a task.
I called to Claudio Vosti and Giuliano Zanetti (Lema). We will make a decision tomorrow morning.

To be honest: Small chance, that we can do 2 tasks (we should do 2 with a certain probability, this are the rules).

I'm sorry for this uncertainness. But as we did not have a lot of tasks this year, we should not waste a possibility. If you have any input, pls. tell me...

Martin


Meine Notizen:
Höhenströhmung bringt feuchte Luft und wird mit Kaltfrönli eingeklemmt.

Sehr schnell wechselnde Modelle.
Im Norden kommt kein Lauf in Frage. Feuchte Luft und Wind.

Südseite (Lema):

Samstag:
- Westföhn, am Sa auf 3000 klar zu starker Wind (
- 8 Std Sonne
- Inversion auf 1500-2000m mit feuchter Schicht (unten SW mit stabiler Luft, oben NW, trockener, aber warm)
GFS gibt hohe Wolken

Sonntag:
- In Nacht auf So mittelhohe Wolken, im Lauf des Sonntags wieder Abtrocknung.
- Inversion wie Samstag
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